The USA started this operation in 2019. It was led by the following individuals:
- Donald Lu – Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs
- Chris Murphy – Senator from Connecticut
- Sumona Guha – US State Department, Policy Planning Staff
The operation was executed by the International Republican Institute (IRI), which is part of the US State Department NGO, NED (National Endowment for Democracy). IRI has had a presence in Bangladesh since 2001. Key figures involved were:
- Sarah Margon – Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor
- Francisco Bencosme – Senior Advisor for the East Asian and Pacific Affairs Bureau at the Department of State
The project was funded by NED and USAID.
March 2019
IRI received a grant from USAID and NED.
IRI launched the operation “Promoting Accountability, Inclusivity, and Resiliency Support Program” (PAIRS) with the goal of bringing regime change in Bangladesh.
The strategy was to enhance the political participation of Bangladeshi citizens and amplify anti-authoritarian voices. IRI supported three civil societies, trained 77 activists, and engaged 326 citizens to develop 43 specific policy demands, which were proposed to 65 government officials.
Artists, musicians, and performers were identified, and 11 grants were made available to them. Specific quantitative and qualitative research was conducted to identify the fault lines in Bangladeshi society.
IRI supported socially conscious artists, recognizing them as underutilized actors in a rapidly shrinking civic space. Individual artists and activists are harder to suppress and can often reach a wider audience with democratic and reformist messages.
Marginalized communities were identified as non-threatening beneficiaries, making them more likely to receive government support for advocacy. Through these approaches, IRI’s program raised public awareness of social and political issues in Bangladesh and supported the public in challenging the status quo, ultimately aiming for a shift in power within the country.
Individuals were invited to events, book launches, storytelling sessions, photo exhibitions, art shows, theater performances, dance events, movie and documentary screenings, and roundtable discussions. Some of these were exclusive invite-only events, attended by political and consular officers from the US Embassy. According to their findings, these activities directly impacted 400,000 Bangladeshi nationals.
If you apply this same framework to India, you can begin to understand why the US Embassy has been meeting with diverse groups in the country.
All these actions may seem surprising, but this is how regime change operations are often conducted through public participation.
Phase One
The first phase of the project ended in February 2021.
February 2021
NED released an additional $900,000 for the second phase of the regime change operation.
In this phase, they amplified the voices of marginalized groups, especially youth and women, within political debate and decision-making.
IRI also worked with representatives from student organizations on university campuses to improve their leadership skills. Additionally, IRI supported student cultural activists, including musicians, artists, and photographers.
Roundtable discussions were organized among students.
The operation anticipated a regime change by the end of 2022, but this target was not achieved due to two main factors:
- The Digital Security Act 2018: Sheikh Hasina effectively used this law to suppress social media propaganda created by the USA to a large extent.
- Successful Management of COVID-19: The USA expected COVID-19 to be a catalyst for public discontent and regime change. However, Bangladesh managed the pandemic well, with minimal deaths, and India also played a significant role in helping Bangladesh recover from the crisis.
In fact, India was a major factor in the failure of this regime change operation. Sheikh Hasina was significantly influenced by India, particularly by Narendra Modi’s government.
March 16, 2024
The National Democratic Institute (NDI), another Washington-based organization, and IRI’s Technical Assessment Mission (TAM) released a report on the 2024 national election, which was won by Sheikh Hasina.
The report noted that the 2024 election period saw less physical and online violence compared to previous election cycles.
However, the quality of the January election was undermined by increased political polarization, violence among political actors, shrinking civic space, and worsening freedoms of expression and association.
April 2024
The third and final phase of the regime change operation was launched.
IRI had already prepared the groundwork for regime change by empowering civil societies and student leaders.
The US also supplied arms to insurgent groups via Bangkok. In May, Donald Lu visited Dhaka via Bangkok. A meeting between opposition leader Tariq Rahman, Jamat-e-Islami, and the US regime change team took place in London.
July was deliberately selected as a key period, as Bangladesh often experiences floods during this time, keeping the army busy with relief efforts. And the rest, as they say, is history.
Bangladesh is a classical case study of how, in the name of social interaction and through non-traditional means, such as fostering civil society members, you can bring about regime change.
The US is employing similar tactics in India.
Based on a report from The Sunday Guardian
